National Weather Service New York NY
733pm EDT Monday August 12 2024
Synopsis
A surface trough will move across the area this afternoon and evening. Weak high pressure will otherwise be in control through Friday. A weak frontal system slowly approaches from the west Friday night through Monday.
Near Term - Until 6am Tuesday Morning
Line of showers and embedded thunderstorms tracking southward through Connecticut and into northeastern New Jersey had some showers and thunderstorms that were producing briefly gusty winds, up to 35 MPH, and heavy rainfall. Updated for this line through Connecticut and into Long Island Sound. This line was associated with a surface through that moves through early this evening. The activity is also expected to weaken toward, and just after, sunset.
Dry conditions are then expected for the rest of the night. Clouds will start off mostly cloudy with the showers in the area, and these showers are fast moving, and the mostly cloudy skies should clear out pretty quickly. There are more clouds upstream, but coverage is not nearly as widespread as what is currently moving through, so transition to partly clear skies, then mostly clear later this evening, generally after 8 pm.
As for temperatures, they will run a few degrees below normal for this time of year thanks to some cold air advection, in the upper 50s to middle 60s for much of the forecast area. The outlying areas inland and in the Pine Barrens of Long Island should radiate well enough to see lows in the lower to middle 50s.
Short Term - 6am Tuesday Morning Through Tuesday Night
Tranquil weather expected Tuesday into Tuesday night as high pressure builds in from the west. A weak upper level trough moves through Tuesday night, but there looks to be enough subsidence with the high to preclude any precipitation.
Seasonably cool temperatures continue with continued weak cold advection. Highs on Tuesday will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s, perhaps some middle 80s across NE NJ. Tuesday night may be a few degrees warmer than Monday night, with lows in the upper 50s to upper 60s. Once again, outlying areas will be cooler.
Long Term - Wednesday Through Monday
An upper and mid level trough remains over the northeast and into the Mid Atlantic Wednesday through Thursday as a surface high and upper ridge remain nearly blocked by this trough, and move slowly eastward. A weak shortwave rotates into the eastern upper trough Thursday, and may be strong enough, with some instability and CAPE during the afternoon, for a few thunderstorms inland and east. This trough then slowly tracks eastward into the western Atlantic Friday night and through the weekend as a frontal system slowly approaches from the west. The upper pattern remains nearly blocked and the frontal system with its slow progression may affect the area into the beginning of next week. The movement of this system may also be impacted by Tropical Storm Ernesto's track late in the week and into the upcoming weekend. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for forecasts on Tropical Storm Ernesto.
Temperatures will be near seasonal normals Wednesday through Friday, and then slightly below for Saturday through Monday with clouds and precipitation. Humidity levels will be increasing Friday night into early next week as dew points rise from the lower and mid 60s to the upper 60s to around 70, especially along the coast.
Marine
High pressure provides a weak pressure gradient and a light wind regime overall through Tuesday night. Seas will also remain well below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) levels.
With high pressure in control Wednesday through Friday winds and seas across the forecast waters remain below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) levels. The combination of an approaching frontal system Friday night into the weekend along with increasing long period southerly swell from Tropical Storm Ernesto will allow for ocean seas to build to SCA (Small Craft Advisory) levels by late Saturday into Saturday night. The timing of the building swells will be dependent on the track and intensity of Tropical Storm Ernesto. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for forecasts on Tropical Storm Ernesto.
Hydrology
There are no hydrologic concerns through the week. It is too early to know what impacts may arise from an approaching frontal system this weekend.
Tides / Coastal Flooding
There is a moderate rip current risk for all ocean beaches through this evening. A low rip current risk is forecast for Tuesday and Wednesday.
NOAA New York NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None.
Marine
None.
